Public perception might be the least talked about aspect of linemaking, but it is essential to understand this piece of the puzzle. Oddsmakers make betting numbers based on stats, situations and what they think the public is thinking about a game. We just saw a Super Bowl where the No. 6 seeded team (Pittsburgh) was a 4-point favorite over the No. 1 seed of the NFC (Seattle). If you just looked at stats, the two teams were relatively equal, with strong run defenses, balanced offense, above-average quarterbacks and good coaching staffs.

The Seahawks hadn’t done anything in the playoffs to make people think they were overrated, winning by double digits over the Redskins and Panthers. However, public perception played a role in making the Steelers the favorite. Going beyond stats, the Steelers had just won three playoff games on the road against the No. 1, 2 and 3 seeds, winning them all convincingly. And the general public sees that the AFC is better when it comes to the top teams than the NFC. Oddsmakers knew they couldn’t make the game a pick ‘em or Pittsburgh 2 because the average bettor would come in on the Steelers. The purpose of bookmaking is not to be concerned with who wins the game, but that you get relatively equal amounts of money on both sides, pay off the winners after the game, and keep the 10% juice.

While football season is behind us, public perception is still in high gear in sports on the worlds of college and pro basketball. Quick: Who do you think the general public thinks is going to meet in the NBA Finals? The Spurs and Pistons. They met last season, have combined to win the last three titles and are rolling along with great teams this season.

Let’s also remember that the general public can be wrong. Two years ago the star-studded Lakers were perceived as a huge favorite against the Pistons in the NBA Finals. They went from a 5-to-1 favorite to an 8-to-1 favorite as the series opened. Public money poured in on LA. The talented and team-oriented Pistons won the series in 5 games while Kobe sulked and Shaq pointed fingers and clanked free throws.

I bring this up because while the Spurs and Pistons are expected to meet in the Finals as far as the general betting public is concerned, few seem to be paying much attention to the red-hot Dallas Mavericks. Why? Past playoff flameouts, for one thing. Their current reputation, like the NFL Colts, is as a team that always wins during the regular season, then gets upset in the postseason. But they are playing great ball, particularly on the defensive end for coach Avery Johnson.

On Thursday I released a big play on the TNT match-up between the Heat and Mavericks. In my analysis of the game I wrote, ‘Public perception is all over the number in this game. It’s widely regarded that the home court value in the NBA is worth roughly 3 1/2 points, and this season the number is slightly less at 3.36. Therefore the linesmaker is basically saying that on a neutral court these two teams are equal. Well despite what the linesmaker wants you to think, reality says nothing could be further from the truth. Miami has two great players, terrific for the NBA image, but the other cast of characters do not have the talent to make this one of the elite teams. Miami is just 13-13 away from home. By comparison Dallas is 19-6 on the road. Good teams win consistently at home, great teams do it on the road. Dallas is 4-1 straight up and against the spread in this series. The last three games they have shot 50%, 48.9% and 51.9% from the field. Shaq is forced to play further out on the court than normal because the Maverick big men are such good outside shooters. This in turn opens up the inside for penetrating guards. I expect the host (Dallas) to win by a large margin.’

As you can see, I was interested in not only the individual match-up of the Mavericks shooting big-men and quick guards taking advantage of Shaq, but also a soft betting number which was based on a public perception that Miami is an elite team. In short, the general public thinks of Miami as one of the top three teams in the NBA, and the Mavericks somewhere below.

The public can think whatever they want, but I’m only interested in winning wagering opportunities. My clients and I enjoyed a profitable national TV laugher as Dallas routed the Heat 112-76. There’s nothing more satisfying than identifying a one-sided laugher beforehand, and then laughing again, all the way to the bank!

Bryan Leonard is a documented member of the Professional Handicappers League.
Read all of his articles at http://www.procappers.com/Bryan_Leonard.htm

Tags: Bryan Leonard, handicapping, NBA, procappers, professional handicappers league, public perception, sportsBryan Leonard, handicapping, NBA, procappers, professional handicappers league, public perception, sports

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Sunday (11/20)


Best:
Rockets @ Pacers: At 3-6, Houston really needs the tough win in Indiana. It doesn’t matter how shallow the West is, last place is bad to be in. Yao Ming gets in foul trouble often, and you can put him down for a disqualification up against Jermaine O’neal. McGrady won’t show up in the 4th quarter every time; he’s got to contribute early and have a big first half.
Runnner-up:
Grizzlies @ Nuggets: Memphis has looked increasingly more impressive with each game. Denver has looked good sporadically with injuries to Boozer, Nene and coach George Karl hurting them. Tough to say whom the favorite should be. Whoever of Gasol and Anthony steps up more will lead their team to victory.
Blowout:
Heat @ Raptors: Last Sunday’s Raptor game was one to watch. Toronto will be in a similar situation though: down by 18 in the 4th and looking to make a comeback. Regardless of injuries to Williams and Shaq, Miami is starting to click. A double-digit win should be expected for Miami.

Monday (11/21)



Best:
Nets @ Warriors: Kidd against Davis and Carter and against Richardson spotlight this matchup. Golden State hasn’t had to travel far lately, so they should be well rested for this encounter. However, Richard Jefferson is going to exploit Dunleavy at SF. Someone has to step up for the Warriors.


Runner-up:
Hornets @ Sixers: The young guys in New Orleans/Oklahoma City will find a lot of easy shots with Sam Dalembert injured. Iverson should have a good game, but Webber could get fatigued easily. This is Philadelphia’s game to win, but they could easily get complacent before the game begins.


Blowout:
Bucks @ Jazz: Utah owner Larry Miller freaked out when they lost a game scoring only 63 points. He shouldn’t fret since Utah did have 4 of their 5 starters injured that in that game. However, he should fret that those situations will come often, and this encounter with Milwaukee will be no different if McLeod, Boozer, Giricek and Kirilenko are hurt.

Tuesday (11/22)


Best:
Celtics @ Cavaliers: These 2 have a history against each other, going back to when Paul Pierce spit on the Cavs bench. The Celtics hustle will compete for certain against Cleveland. Boston began the year with 3 straight OT or last-second games, so you know a tight affair is in order.


Runner-up:
Rockets @ Mavericks: These 2 teams went 7 games in the playoffs last year, and could very well meet again this year (assuming the Rockets once again finish strong). Like the postseason, Yao needs to step up to give Houston a good shot at a win.


Blowout:
Raptors @ Suns: Toronto has allowed a ridiculous 112+ PPG in their last 4. Thrice in their last 7 games have they allowed their opponent to score 117 or more. Phoenix doesn’t score as much as they used to, but it shouldn’t take much overwhelm Toronto.

Wednesday (11/23)


Best:
Bobcats @ Knicks: If nothing else, both of these teams will struggle throughout. Expect a lot fouls, 3-point attempts and layups. Why watch it? Neither team wins their games on blowouts, so a squeaker is in order.


Runner-up:
Spurs @ Warriors: Golden State has a day off, so they should be able to dictate the game’s pace. In the half-court game, Golden State is outmatched. They play the same way as San Antonio, but their pace is a little quicker. They made 12 3-pointers to win in Milwaukee, and they’ll need to make a high percentage to come out with a W.


Blowout:
Nuggets @ Pistons: We know that Detroit is the genuine article great team we expected, but Denver is still up in the air. If Denver plays their best they could compete, but they just don’t match up well to Detroit’s defensive powerhouse. And Darko Milicic will make sure Carmelo Anthony has a poor game.

Thursday (11/24)
Keep in mind that there are only 2 NBA games on Thanksgiving, so these 2 were the only ones. Both might’ve made the cut anyway.


Best:
Cavaliers @ Pacers: A central division matchup that will prove more about Cleveland if they win. Making the playoffs isn’t a concern as much as winning the division. This important game will be played tough and will hopefully push back the start of the Sonics/Lakers game.


Runner-up:
Sonics @ Lakers: Love is not in the air. If there is one guy Ray Allen doesn’t appear to be classy to, it’s Kobe. The Sonics are worse and the Lakers are faintly better. The Sonics have owned the Lakers in the 21st century, but Kobe Bryant is going to step up for a big performance.

Friday (11/25)


Best:
Blazers @ Magic: Orlando has had some problems containing rather inexperienced teams. Portland is sure to give them trouble. Orlando is low scoring and doesn’t wipe out any team. Composure is going to be key. It adds up to close finish, and whether Turkoglu or Ratliff can produce.


Runner-up:
Mavericks @ Heat: If Detroit really is the best team in the East, then Dallas’s 37-point win against them last Saturday says volumes. Of course Miami just isn’t at Detroit or even Indiana’s scale with Shaq missing. A win here should raise their status.


Blowout:
Bulls @ Spurs: Chicago lost in OT to San Antonio earlier in the year, and will find it even harder for redemption. Songalia and Chandler provide little blockage against Tim Duncan to blow right through them. Hinrich is as good as anyone to be up against Parker, but you’ll still see Tony get 20+ points. Expect the deficit to reach 20 by the 3rd quarter.

Saturday (11/26)


Best:
76ers @ Knicks: Iverson and Marbury have both been known throughout as coach killers, but Iverson has appeared to gel with Maurice Cheeks. The same can’t be said for Marbury, who like all Knick players is facing trade rumors. The divisional player matchups are what make this game a draw.


Runner-up:
Pistons @ Bucks: Another good-ole Central division showdown, and once again Milwaukee is trying to validate their 3-0 start. With the division as tight as it is, both teams should play harder than usual. Detroit definitely needs a better road showing than that bombardment they took in Dallas.


Blowout:
Hornets @ Sonics: J.R. Smith will get a lesson on defending pure shooters like Ray Allen, assuming Smith isn’t injured and won’t play. Either way, Seattle should dominate offensively. Really bad field-goal % for the Sonics will be the only factor keeping a blowout from occurring.

Tags: basketball, basketball article, basketball hall of fame, hall of fame, NBA, nba hall of fame, sportsbasketball, basketball article, basketball hall of fame, hall of fame, NBA, nba hall of fame, sports

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If you can’t take the Heat

The Miami Heat made their best showing in franchise history a season ago in reaching the Eastern Conference Finals but still fell short of expectations. The expectations grow even higher this season as veteran guard Gary Payton (The Glove) and still emerging playmaker Jason Williams (White Chocolate) join Superman (Shaquille O’neal) and Flash (Dwayne Wade) to form their own version of the fantastic four. With other key acquisitions James Posey and Antoine Walker thrown into the mix, along side Alonzo Mourning; this is the best talent in the East. The question at large is if this team will look as good during the course of the season as they do on paper.

In the recent past we’ve seen that having too much talent can hinder a team. In 2003, the Los Angeles Lakers, with four future hall-of-famers (Shaq, Kobe, Gary Payton, Karl Malone) had trouble finding their rhythm and ultimately could not get the job done.

They found it difficult to get enough touches for each player, and Payton and Malone never fully adapted to the triangle offense. But with this new Miami squad, not as much seems to be in doubt. It is a huge advantage that O’neal and Payton were both a part of the Lakers’ debacle two seasons ago. They will be able to dissect the problems in L.A. and bring their experience to Miami.

One problem they will have to address is team chemistry. Players will need to understand and adhere to the role that is best for the team and not the one they are used to playing. Dwayne Wade, Jason Williams, Gary Payton, and Antoine Walker are all used to having the ball in their hands and making the decisions on offense. Dwayne Wade will have the ball the majority of the time, and it will be up to Coach Van Gundy to find a system that works for Payton and Williams. I think he will get himself into trouble is he tries to play these guys in a set rotation. If he plays them strategically according to matchups, the Heat will be better offeven if this means one of them hardly playing in some games.

Defense was the biggest weakness for Miami a season ago. In this regard, the Heat improve with their new players. Payton’s length at 6′4” and above average quickness, despite aging legs, should provide solid on the ball defense resulting in keeping the oppositions point guards in check. Posey is athletic at 6′8” and can guard smaller if need be. Walker’s large frame will allow Van Gundy to be creative with matchups. He will be a solid compliment to O’neal and Haslem. Miami shouldn’t lose a game on the boards all season.

If Miami had another weakness last season, it was a consistent compliment to Shaq and Wade. The Heat need a third player to be productive and efficient to win a title. For the Bulls in the nineties, there was Michael, Scottie, and Horace Grant. For the Spurs, there’s Duncan, Ginobli, and Parker. Last season, the two Jones’ usually took on the role of the third scorer. But in the Eastern Conference Finals, the Pistons defensive intensity made it difficult for Damon to get open looks and kept Eddie’s slashing to a minimum. Antoine Walker could be what the Heat is looking for. He will fill a stat line more than either of the Jones’ did last season. He will consistently get double-doubles. But in order for Walker to be the type of player this team needs, he will have to exercise better shot selection than he’s shown in the past, which should help him shoot a better percentage from the field. Also, look for William’s energy at the end of quarters to be a big spark for the Heat.

Miami will be the team to beat in the East this season.

Tags: basketball, Betting, Jimmy Boyd, NBA, procappers, professional handicappers league, sportsbasketball, Betting, Jimmy Boyd, NBA, procappers, professional handicappers league, sports

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