The 2006 NFL Season has turned the corner towards the last half of the season and the playoff picture is getting muddy. With 9 games played, who are the teams destined for the playoffs? Who are those that might sneak in? And who are those that need to start losing to get a better 2007 draft selection? Let’s take a look.

In the AFC East, there are two teams in playoff contention. The Patriots are 6-3 and have a one game on the 5-4 Jets. The Bills and Dolphins are playing for 2007.

The AFC North is Baltimore’s to lose. The Bengals are three games back and don’t look like a playoff team.

The Colts own the AFC Souththat’s a done deal. Jacksonville is 5-4 and has a shot at the playoffsif they can stop losing to teams like Houston.

The AFC West is a battle. Both the Broncos and Chargers are 7-2. Meanwhile, the Chiefs are 5-4 and in the hunt for a Wild Card.

The NFC East is a tight race. The Giants have a one game lead on Dallas and Philadelphia. Washington is dead.

Chicago will win the NFC North. The other teams are vying for 2007 draft selections.

The Saints are marching in the NFC South. It’s still anyone’s division, but the whole country is pulling for the Saints to get into the playoffs somehow. Carolina and Atlanta are just one game back.

The Seahawks keep it going despite not having their MVP running back and Pro Bowl QB. They are 6-3 and will take the NFC West this season. The other teams are showing some improvement, but losing seasons look likely and they won’t challenge the Seahawks past this point.

Oddsmaker’s have had plenty of time to carefully scrutinize the last game of the football season, therefore the side and total are likely to be good numbers. You rarely see much line movement on Super Bowls. However, proposition bets offer bettors an excellent opportunity to find good bets and soft numbers. But you can’t do guesswork, you have to do some homework.

Let’s go through a prop and do some research on it. For instance, there’s a line offered on the Steelers/Seahawks Super Bowl this weekend that reads: What half will the most points be scored in? The second half opened +110. Is this a good number? Just thinking about what might happen, it seems to reason that both coaches, Mike Holmgren and Bill Cowher, are primarily ball control gurus. They look to establish their running games and control the clock. Perhaps the first half will be more conservative, with the second half more wide-open as the trailing team looks to catch up. But let’s not stop there. Is there anything in recent history to support this?

Last season, the Patriots and Eagles were tied 7-7 at the half, then there were 31 points scored in the second half. As we reasoned above, the Patriots jumped ahead 24-14 forcing the Eagles to pass more in the fourth quarter to get back in the game. Chalk one up for the second half having more scoring.

Two years ago, the Patriots and Panthers scored 24 first half points. Then they tallied 35 in the second half. Actually, there was no scoring in the third quarter and then the teams erupted for 35 points in the wildest fourth quarter in Super Bowl memory.

Three years ago, the Buccaneers led the Raiders 20-3 at the half. That’s 23 point. The Bucs went on to win 48-21, so there were 46 second half points! Four years ago, the Patriots led the Rams 14-3 at the half, then the teams combined for 20 second half points.

Before that, the Ravens were up 10-0 on the Giants at the half, then the teams combined for 31 second half points. Before that, the Rams led 9-0 at the half over Tennessee. The teams combined for 30 second half points.

Before that, Denver led Atlanta 17-6 at the half, a combined 23 points. Like the Patriots/Panthers Super Bowl, there was no scoring in the third quarter, and then the teams erupted for 30 fourth quarter points! If you’re keeping score, that’s 7-0 the last seven years where there has been more scoring in the second half than the first half.

In the Broncos/Packers Super Bowl before that, the teams combined for 31 first half points, then 24 second half points. So we have to go back to 1998 to find the last time the first half won that wager. This doesn’t guarantee that there will be more second half scoring this Sunday, of course, but my point is to show you what handicappers do when assessing whether a prop bet is worth a wager or not. There are dozens of interesting prop bets to examine this Sunday. So get out there and find ones you think may be worth wagering on. But don’t stop there: Do your homework to support your findings!

Bryan Leonard is a documented member of the Professional Handicappers League.
Read all of his articles at http://www.procappers.com/Bryan_Leonard.htm.

August 31, 2006 – On this Wednesday morning, Tropical Depression Ernesto left the Florida mainland, and like a pent up post pubescent teenager, quickly regained its stamina over the warm Atlantic waters. Ernesto was officially declared Tropical Storm Ernesto around 11 o’clock that night.

About the same time, the beaches east of Jacksonville experienced the first band of Ernesto, rapidly moving cumulus clouds accompanied by thunderous booms and bright flashes, winds around 25 mph and brief but torrential downpours. The bands continued racing onshore intermittently throughout the night and by morning it was over. Or was it?

The eye of Tropical Storm Ernesto had actually passed well offshore of North Florida, continuously gathering strength and churning up the waters as it made its way to landfall in the Carolinas.

Weather wise, the storm was no big deal in the North Florida beaches area, and most people slept through it with little incident. But there were those who retired that evening with tense anticipation of what was to come the next day. As Ernesto passed offshore and north east winds turned to south west winds, a phenomenon typical of cyclonic storms occurred in the area.

As the waves generated by a passing storm pound the shore with the fierce power of a nor’easter, they can at times be huge, but are generally sloppy, poorly formed mush. These waves, backed by the winds from the east, can last as long as the storm is out there churning up the waters.

If the storm is paralleling the coast, and is close enough that it is effecting our wind direction, once it passes and is to the north, the winds will shift, coming out of the west.

Those big fat waves that were once pounding our beach are now standing up proud, spitting back foam from their tips with the blusterous wind hollowing out their faces – preventing the waves from breaking until they can no longer hold back, finally curling down in a thunderous crash of white, foamy water peeling off left and right.

The chop is gone, and the surrounding water is as smooth as a baby’s butt. The water can look as calm as a lake, only to be heaved up by sets of incoming swells standing at attention until finally bursting at the seams at the last possible moment.

East Coast Surf is entirely dependent on storms that brew offshore in the Atlantic, producing swells that eventually travel to the coastline. From a surfer’s point of view, the conditions accompanying a storm like Ernesto is as good as it gets in North East Florida. But you better be there on time, because it only lasts a few tide cycles.

And that’s the downside. This west wind is so good at cleaning up the surf, that over time it totally knocks the waves down, and they keep getting smaller as long as the west wind lasts. In an absence of anything creating waves in the Atlantic, the surf can diminish to less than 6 inches. Not an uncommon occurrence in Jax Beach or the entire east coast for that matter.

Due to the geography of the coastline in north Florida, we seldom get a direct hit from hurricanes or tropical storms. This is not to say that we won’t, and if we do, it will no doubt be disastrous. We do however get a lot of storms passing by, and some very close calls. Floyd is one that comes into mind that skirted our coast on its way to wreak devastation further north. The surfing community here has come to know what to look for, and with an excellent bottom that is in place at the Jacksonville Beach Pier, they also know where to go.

Tropical Storm Ernesto was small by any comparison and did not spend a lot of time off our shore generating waves. But every surfer knows that when the right circumstances converge, and all the conditions are met, there is a real potential for some very fun, if not huge surfing opportunities. In this case, this little tropical storm called Ernesto delivered!